Por: Rodrigo Pérez-Alonso.
En México, el consumo interno de productos derivados del petróleo es mayor a la capacidad de refinamiento del crudo que se extrae en nuestro país, por lo que es necesario importar gasolina y otros combustibles, así como productos plásticos, fertilizantes e insecticidas, por mencionar algunos. Es decir, somos un productor del llamado “oro negro”, pero no contamos con los medios de refinación y destilación requeridos, por lo que exportamos petróleo e importamos sus derivados.
A finales de 2019, México produjo 1.75 millones de barriles diarios (MMbd) de petróleo crudo, de los cuales casi el 70% fue producto de exportación. Con estas cifras, nuestro país está entre los primeros 12 lugares a nivel mundial en producción y exportación del hidrocarburo. No obstante, estamos lejos de ser una potencia en este mercado.
Fuente: elaboración propia con datos de la Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) y Knoema, 2020
Si bien es cierto que Estados Unidos es el principal productor de petróleo en el mundo, el 75% del crudo que extrae se utiliza en el mercado interno. En contraste, Arabia Saudita exporta el 75% de su producción, mientras que Rusia vende la mitad de su petróleo a otros países. En conjunto, estas dos naciones abastecen 1 de cada 3 barriles que se venden en el mercado internacional, lo que refleja su preponderancia en la oferta y, por ende, en el precio.
Un claro ejemplo de esta situación se dio en marzo de 2020, cuando Arabia Saudita inició una “guerra comercial” con Rusia tras no alcanzar un acuerdo mutuo para reducir su producción. Como resultado, ambos países incrementaron sus exportaciones y crearon una sobreoferta de petróleo, lo que redujo significativamente los precios del petróleo a nivel mundial. Esto generó un esquema “perder-perder” y una paradoja de racionalidad económica que duró un mes, hasta que los principales productores de petróleo se sentaron a negociar. Las reuniones de abril agruparon a naciones pertenecientes a la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) y sus aliados (OPEP+), así como a algunos países productores del G-20.[1] El objetivo de las reuniones, en las que participó México, fue negociar una reducción colectiva y proporcional de la extracción de petróleo para elevar el valor del barril, el cual se desplomó más de la mitad de su precio hasta alcanzar niveles no vistos desde 2002.[2] Esta caída se generó por tres razones:
- La guerra comercial antes mencionada
- La desaceleración de la economía mundial en los últimos meses de 2019
- Una mayor reducción en la demanda internacional de petróleo por la expansión de la pandemia del COVID-19.
Aquí es importante hacer una connotación al respecto, pues si bien desde el punto de vista del consumidor es deseable contar con precios mas bajos de gasolina y otros productos, el precio de venta de las empresas extractoras, como Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), tienen un punto de equilibrio con base en sus costos operativos. Estos costos dependen de variables como: el tipo de tecnología utilizado, la complejidad para extraer el hidrocarburo, el capital humano, el costo de transporte y almacenamiento del petróleo, entre algunos otros. Esto implica que en algunos lugares del mundo el costo de extracción es menor a 10 dólares por barril, mientras que en otros supera los 40 dólares. Entre marzo y abril de 2020, el precio promedio del barril de petróleo de la OPEP se redujo en 40%, al bajar de 34 a 20 dólares por barril, lo que implica que algunos productores han reducido su margen de utilidad, mientras que para otros ya no es costeable operar.
La propuesta de la OPEP+ fue reducir la producción de cada país en 23% durante mayo y junio de 2020, así como una disminución de 18% para el resto del año. El acuerdo se lograría si se aprobaba por unanimidad, sin embargo, se generó un momento de tensión cuando un solo país rechazó la propuesta: México. La justificación fue que la estrategia energética de la presente administración es revertir (o aminorar) a 2024 la tendencia a la baja de la producción nacional, la cual en 2004 alcanzó un máximo histórico de 3.4 MMbd, mientras que actualmente se produce la mitad. Debido a la discrepancia de agendas entre México y la OPEP+, Estados Unidos intervino y fungió de intermediario para alcanzar un nuevo acuerdo: del 23% que a México le correspondería reducir en mayo y junio (0.4 MMbd), solo lo haría en 6% (0.1 MMbd), además de no afectar su producción el resto del año. Por su parte, Estados Unidos compensaría esta medida al reducir un 2% adicional su extracción de petróleo (0.25 MMbd), además de los 1.5 MMbd que ya había ofrecido acotar.
Finalmente, el punto de acuerdo se aprobó y todas las partes quedaron conformes. No obstante, es necesario mencionar los riesgos de la postura del gobierno de México, los cuales no han sido menores. Por un lado, la OPEP pudo haber impuesto sanciones a nuestro país, por el otro, ahora se le debe un favor a Estados Unidos. Tan es así, que el presidente Trump dijo que México “después lo pagará”.
La postura ante esta situación por parte del gobierno que encabeza el presidente López Obrador fue tan atrevida que roza la imprudencia, pues se trata de un problema global que requiere de la cooperación internacional para resolverlo. Sin embargo, desde la perspectiva de la secretaria de energía, Rocío Nahle, “el recorte de la producción petrolera de México se hizo en la medida de sus posibilidades, porque el país no cubre las dimensiones de Arabia Saudita o Rusia”. Este argumento puede ser válido o no según cada interpretación: es invalido si se considera que estos países producen y exportan más, por ende y de forma proporcional, su recorte es mayor (el objetivo del acuerdo original era mantener estable la cuota del mercado); asimismo, su ingreso por producción y comercialización es mayor, por lo que el contexto actual les afecta en la misma magnitud. Por su parte, el argumento es válido si se toma en cuenta la preponderancia del mercado de ambos países, ya que el contexto internacional se agravó aún más por la guerra comercial que sostuvieron durante un mes.
Dicho lo anterior, también es necesario destacar que el acuerdo alcanzado beneficia en gran medida a nuestro país, especialmente si se considera el panorama actual del COVID-19. El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) estima que México será el tercer país latinoamericano más afectado por el confinamiento de la pandemia, por lo que el estancamiento de los factores de producción provocará que el PIB decrezca 6.6% en 2020. De este modo, las restricciones a la extracción nacional de petróleo hubieran afectado aún más la economía, especialmente si se valoran los siguientes puntos:
Entre diciembre de 2019 y febrero de 2020, la demanda mundial de petróleo se redujo en 10% a consecuencia de la menor movilidad que ha provocado la pandemia. Al respecto, la OPEP estima que el consumo promedio de petróleo a nivel mundial durante 2020 será 6.8% menor que el año anterior, de tal forma que un ajuste a la baja de 6% en la producción de PEMEX durante mayo y junio hubiera sido una acción esperada ante una caída en la demanda del hidrocarburo.
La Ley de Ingresos de la Federación para el ejercicio fiscal 2020 estimaba un costo medio de 49 dólares por barril. Pese a la caída actual del precio a 15.3 dólares, los ingresos públicos derivados de la venta de petróleo están garantizados por programas de cobertura (seguros contratados), de tal modo que el diferencial de precio en el mercado no afectará las finanzas públicas. Sin embargo, una reducción entre 18 y 23% de la extracción del petróleo sí hubiera modificado significativamente el balance de ingresos en México. Para dimensionar esta magnitud, cabe señalar que los ingresos petroleros representan 4% del PIB y que PEMEX pagó casi 1 billón de pesos (un millón de millones) de impuestos al gobierno de México en 2018, lo que equivale al 83% del gasto anual de las dependencias de la Administración Pública Federal (APF).
De acuerdo con cifras de PEMEX, el costo promedio de extracción de un barril de crudo es de 14.2 dólares (antes de impuestos). Si bien esta cifra está justo debajo del precio de venta actual de 15.3 dólares, se puede “argumentar” que la empresa productiva del Estado aún opera con un pequeño margen de utilidad. Se esperaría que las ganancias sean cada vez mayores con las medidas que está tomando la OPEP+ y conforme aumente el precio del petróleo. Además, si bien es cierto que PEMEX no cuenta con un seguro de cobertura total del precio, tal como lo contrata la Secretaría de Hacienda, parte de su producción si la tiene, por lo que a través de este medio espera recuperar 7.5 mil millones de pesos.
Las formas son tan importantes como los fondos. La negociación de México con el grupo de la OPEP+ finalmente arribó a buen puerto, pues existen diversas razones de peso por las cuales el gobierno de México tuvo que tomar esa postura, pero no se debe socavar que el riesgo de “no negociar” pudo ser muy alto. Ante las crisis económica y sanitaria que enfrentan México y el mundo a raíz del COVID-19, cuyos estragos ya son visibles, no se puede negar que el acuerdo alcanzado en materia de producción de petróleo fue benéfico para nuestro país desde una perspectiva de racionalidad económica, por lo que, haciendo a un lado las formas, vale la pena celebrar los fondos.
[1] El G-20 es el grupo de los países más ricos del mundo, lo conforman 19 naciones y la Unión Europea. En conjunto representan el 85% de la economía mundial y el 80% de su comercio.
[2] Valores de cotización en Texas y otros mercados internacionales al 16 de abril de 2020.
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